Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  19.6  21.9  26.8  28.4  29.7  23.4  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  20.0  13.0  10.0   2.0  34.0  32.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        112.9 108.6 104.4 102.4  94.8 100.5 112.9  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  26.0  63.0  49.0  71.0  27.0  38.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  56.0  46.0  53.0  54.0  N  N  U  N  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0  10.0  18.0  20.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.7%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.8%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        1.6%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL172022 221107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  19.6  21.9  26.8  28.4  29.7  23.4  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  56.0  46.0  53.0  54.0  N  N  F  N  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0  10.0  18.0  20.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%