Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.8  23.8  21.4  32.5  25.7  27.3  23.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0  13.0   8.0  14.0  36.0  51.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 106.5 104.4 102.4  98.5 115.1 106.5  84.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  36.0  29.0  29.0  30.0  11.0  10.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  53.0  51.0  56.0  61.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  14.0   7.0  11.0  16.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        1.4%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL172022 221107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.8  23.8  21.4  32.5  25.7  27.3  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  53.0  51.0  56.0  61.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  14.0   7.0  11.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%