Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221108 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     70.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  22.4  26.8  30.5  25.9  31.7  26.4  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  14.0  26.0  42.0  51.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 106.5 108.6 110.7 117.3 108.6  86.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  25.0  23.0   6.0  -6.0   7.0  55.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  58.0  63.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  13.0  21.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL172022 221108 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     70.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  22.4  26.8  30.5  25.9  31.7  26.4  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  58.0  63.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  13.0  21.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%