Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  27.7  30.5  28.7  25.3  29.8  24.9  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0   9.0  26.0  33.0  35.0  49.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 104.4 108.6 112.9 115.1  96.6  75.0  55.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  36.0  18.0   8.0  27.0  65.0 111.0  63.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  54.0  61.0  70.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   1.0   5.0  12.0  30.0  24.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.5%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 AL172022 221108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  27.7  30.5  28.7  25.3  29.8  24.9  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  54.0  61.0  70.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   1.0   5.0  12.0  30.0  24.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%