Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70     72.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  28.6  31.1  27.6  32.6  25.4  29.7  15.6  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  19.0  29.0  38.0  36.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.5  99.4 101.5 107.9 103.6  82.7  54.3  32.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  17.0 -12.0  -9.0  32.0  63.0 108.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0   3.0   5.0  23.0  25.0  23.0   8.0  N  F  N  N VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 AL172022 221108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70     72.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  28.6  31.1  27.6  32.6  25.4  29.7  15.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0   3.0   5.0  23.0  25.0  23.0   8.0  N  U  N  N VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%