Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     73.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  32.4  28.7  30.4  29.8  26.0  24.8  23.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  28.0  36.0  36.0  61.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  96.5 100.7 102.9  90.5  60.8  34.1  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  14.0   3.0  32.0  55.0 132.0  40.0  82.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  62.0  63.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   7.0  10.0  34.0  18.0  27.0 -11.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        0.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        4.1%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        1.3%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.6%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.3%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 AL172022 221108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     73.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  32.4  28.7  30.4  29.8  26.0  24.8  23.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  62.0  63.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   7.0  10.0  34.0  18.0  27.0 -11.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%