Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221109 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     74.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  31.3  30.0  31.0  23.2  25.9  20.0  43.5  U  U  N  U  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  40.0  35.0  55.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  97.9  97.9  93.6  72.7  44.3  17.1   0.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   5.0  38.0  35.0  52.0  92.0  51.0  84.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  13.0  12.0  17.0  14.0  25.0  20.0 -24.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        1.0%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        1.2%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        1.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        2.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL172022 221109 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     74.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  31.3  30.0  31.0  23.2  25.9  20.0  43.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  13.0  12.0  17.0  14.0  25.0  20.0 -24.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.2%        0.3%        0.7%