Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221109 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 75.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 33.8 33.0 30.3 22.9 26.0 28.0 52.0 U U U N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 55.0 63.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.1 92.9 86.5 78.5 56.5 31.7 3.2 -13.9 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 57.0 26.0 45.0 101.0 77.0 83.0 71.0 U N U N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 64.0 61.0 67.0 64.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 18.0 18.0 27.0 13.0 25.0 -31.0 -73.0 U VU VU VU U VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.0% 1.4% 4.2% 25kt / 24h 2.4% 3.6% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 2.4% 1.3% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 1.7% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.70 AL172022 221109 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 75.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 33.8 33.0 30.3 22.9 26.0 28.0 52.0 N F F N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 64.0 61.0 67.0 64.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 18.0 18.0 27.0 13.0 25.0 -31.0 -73.0 F VF VF VF F VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 0.6% 4.9%