Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221109 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 76.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 34.3 31.4 24.1 23.3 22.7 43.4 70.6 U U U N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 63.0 36.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.9 88.6 78.5 67.7 38.2 16.2 -2.7 -13.8 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 64.0 28.0 40.0 39.0 100.0 75.0 125.0 67.0 N U N N F N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 51.0 54.0 61.0 64.0 67.0 68.0 64.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 19.0 35.0 19.0 23.0 24.0 33.0 -55.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 1.1% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 2.9% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 AL172022 221109 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 76.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.