Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221109 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.50 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.2 30.5 25.2 25.5 24.5 29.8 53.3 53.3 U N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.6 80.5 67.7 56.5 30.7 4.6 -13.0 -13.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 48.0 54.0 115.0 76.0 71.0 59.0 59.0 N N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 54.0 60.0 63.0 62.0 67.0 64.0 64.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 31.0 24.0 20.0 30.0 -8.0 -36.0 -36.0 U VU VU VU VU F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 0.6% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 AL172022 221109 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.50 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.