Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221110 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  26.1  26.8  25.7  22.0  45.2  45.2  45.2  U  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.5  62.7  47.2  33.2   9.7  -9.4  -9.4  -9.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  65.0 109.0  78.0  62.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  60.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  20.0  19.0  28.0  27.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        0.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.36

 AL172022 221110 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.