Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221110 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 79.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.9 26.7 25.8 24.7 29.1 59.4 59.4 59.4 N N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.0 48.6 32.0 22.8 -1.8 -15.3 -15.3 -15.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 110.0 100.0 46.0 64.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 N F F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 62.0 61.0 66.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 19.0 27.0 27.0 -8.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 VU VU VU VU F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.3% 0.4% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.46 AL172022 221110 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 79.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.