Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221110 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 81.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.8 25.4 26.2 25.0 52.3 52.3 52.3 52.3 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.4 50.9 40.0 27.1 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 91.0 64.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 F F N N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 N U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 21.0 29.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 U VU VU U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.14 AL172022 221110 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 81.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.