Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221110 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.90 82.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 27.0 23.0 36.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.9 45.0 30.2 20.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 74.0 86.0 86.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 F N F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 63.0 66.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 30.0 30.0 12.0 -18.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 VU VU U VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.66 AL172022 221110 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.90 82.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.