Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221111 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.10 83.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 24.2 36.1 53.2 53.2 53.2 53.2 53.2 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.6 34.6 24.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 76.0 85.0 97.0 97.0 97.0 97.0 97.0 N N F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 67.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 7.0 -14.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 VU N VF N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.80 AL172022 221111 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.10 83.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.