Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172022 221111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20     84.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.1  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 18.42

 AL172022 221111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20     84.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.