Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172022 221111 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 83.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 157.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.5 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 24.5 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 111.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -46.0 -46.0 -46.0 -46.0 -46.0 -46.0 -46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.46 AL172022 221111 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 83.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.