Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220528 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     97.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  12.7  13.0  13.2  14.1  18.5  18.8  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  42.0  25.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0 121.0 138.0 169.0 188.0 118.0  40.0 109.0  N  F VF VF VF  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.7%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       28.5%       49.1%       38.8%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       27.5%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       27.2%       16.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       27.2%       16.9%
 45kt / 36h       38.3%       65.6%       51.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       41.6%       20.8%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       56.1%       53.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       49.1%       37.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       69.0%       65.5%