Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220528 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     98.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  12.1  16.0  17.6  16.8  18.1  17.2  13.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  39.0  30.0  18.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 144.0 160.0 175.0 154.0 107.0  94.0  60.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        7.6%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       39.6%       60.0%       49.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.5%       37.8%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       37.2%       23.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       37.2%       23.8%
 45kt / 36h       36.1%       71.5%       53.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       49.0%       24.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       58.9%       54.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       52.6%       38.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.2%       70.0%       65.6%