Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.9  15.5  16.5  16.9  12.4  19.7  19.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  34.0  28.0  26.0  17.0   8.0   4.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0 113.0 140.0 126.0 117.0 111.0 122.0 121.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.1%       18.5%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h       59.5%       71.2%       65.3%
 30kt / 24h       36.4%       61.7%       49.1%
 35kt / 24h       23.4%       61.7%       42.6%
 40kt / 24h       23.4%       60.9%       42.2%
 45kt / 36h       42.0%       67.3%       54.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       47.9%       23.9%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       57.9%       49.9%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       40.8%       31.2%
 65kt / 72h       33.3%       45.3%       39.3%