Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220529 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     98.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.0  18.0  16.2  15.1  16.6  24.4  24.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  30.0  24.0  20.0  14.0   8.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 135.0 104.0  90.0 107.0  82.0  72.0  72.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.7%       12.9%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       45.0%       58.0%       51.5%
 30kt / 24h       25.5%       47.0%       36.3%
 35kt / 24h       25.5%       47.0%       36.3%
 40kt / 24h       25.5%       46.5%       36.0%
 45kt / 36h       36.4%       47.9%       42.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.5%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       41.6%       37.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.3%       18.8%       14.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.5%       20.8%       17.6%