Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220530 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  16.5  14.6  10.9  20.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  18.0  13.0  11.0   7.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  62.0  82.0  88.0 113.0  99.0  99.0  99.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       67.5%       39.0%       53.2%
 25kt / 24h       64.3%       68.7%       66.5%
 30kt / 24h       59.3%       68.7%       64.0%
 35kt / 24h       58.2%       68.7%       63.5%
 40kt / 24h       58.2%       66.7%       62.5%
 45kt / 36h       82.7%       55.7%       69.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       41.2%       20.6%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%       19.0%       19.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%