Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220530 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     98.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.0  13.2  14.4  23.2  29.3  29.3  29.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  14.0  12.0  11.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  80.0 112.0  65.0 108.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.3%       12.9%       15.6%
 25kt / 24h       29.1%       35.9%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.2%       32.5%       26.8%
 35kt / 24h       18.5%       32.5%       25.5%
 40kt / 24h       18.5%       31.1%       24.8%
 45kt / 36h       45.9%       16.6%       31.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        5.2%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%