Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220531 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     96.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  18.3  21.9  29.5  36.2  36.2  36.2  36.2  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   1.0   3.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0 113.0 121.0 107.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.5%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       14.4%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        9.7%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        9.7%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        9.2%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        1.6%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%