Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220531 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 129.0 129.0 129.0 129.0 129.0 129.0 129.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%        0.7%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP012022 220531 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%