Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012022 220531 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     95.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        0.3%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 EP012022 220531 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     95.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%