Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.6  21.3  24.4  32.1  31.3  32.8  30.5  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  26.0  26.0  21.0  16.0  14.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  49.0  50.0  79.0 148.0 152.0 137.0 111.0  U  N  N  N VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       26.7%       16.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%       13.4%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       12.2%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       12.2%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       27.9%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.6%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%       14.3%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        7.3%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%       16.6%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 EP022022 220614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.6  21.3  24.4  32.1  31.3  32.8  30.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%