Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  21.9  22.8  25.9  31.4  32.6  36.0  33.2  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  23.0  22.0  18.0  14.0  20.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  43.0  89.0 102.0 153.0 106.0 139.0  98.0  N  N  F  F VF  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%       11.6%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       23.6%       48.1%       35.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       32.4%       22.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       32.4%       20.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       32.0%       20.3%
 45kt / 36h       16.1%       46.2%       31.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.3%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%       22.8%       18.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%       13.6%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%       17.2%       11.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 EP022022 220614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  21.9  22.8  25.9  31.4  32.6  36.0  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%