Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  26.3  26.2  31.0  31.0  28.7  31.5  27.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  10.0  17.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 103.6  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0 113.0 103.0 150.0 136.0 142.0  68.0  52.0  N  F  F VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  -5.0  -9.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        7.1%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       35.0%       28.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       19.7%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       19.7%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.7%       19.7%       14.7%
 45kt / 36h       13.1%       27.4%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%       13.4%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        6.2%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        7.6%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 EP022022 220614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  26.3  26.2  31.0  31.0  28.7  31.5  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  -5.0  -9.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%