Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  24.2  27.9  29.8  31.7  25.8  33.2  31.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  11.0  15.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  91.6  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  92.0 137.0 150.0 140.0  87.0  70.0  48.0  N  F VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        3.7%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       23.9%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%       11.8%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       11.8%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       11.8%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       16.7%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%       10.5%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        4.1%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        4.3%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 EP022022 220615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  24.2  27.9  29.8  31.7  25.8  33.2  31.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%