Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  27.6  30.4  29.9  28.2  29.9  31.0  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  17.0  16.0  15.0   7.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  91.5  67.7  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0 136.0 144.0 142.0 145.0  91.0  41.0  48.0  N VF VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -6.0 -10.0  -2.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.1%        9.9%       11.5%
 25kt / 24h       32.5%       41.0%       36.8%
 30kt / 24h       17.9%       27.6%       22.8%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       27.6%       22.8%
 40kt / 24h       17.9%       27.2%       22.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.6%       26.9%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.1%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       12.8%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        5.2%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        3.5%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 EP022022 220615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  27.6  30.4  29.9  28.2  29.9  31.0  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -6.0 -10.0  -2.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%