Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220615 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  30.6  30.5  31.0  28.3  31.6  29.8  24.2  N  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  17.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  76.6  61.1  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 131.0 133.0 132.0 108.0  59.0  52.0  38.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.9%       18.4%       25.6%
 25kt / 24h       54.6%       58.6%       56.6%
 30kt / 24h       31.3%       50.6%       41.0%
 35kt / 24h       28.2%       50.6%       39.4%
 40kt / 24h       28.2%       47.5%       37.9%
 45kt / 36h       27.9%       41.0%       34.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.1%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%       12.6%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        6.2%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP022022 220615 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  30.6  30.5  31.0  28.3  31.6  29.8  24.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%