Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220615 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    102.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  35.8  33.0  31.1  29.3  28.0  24.1  22.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  13.0  18.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  77.9  59.8  44.6  44.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  68.0  79.0  90.0  56.0  11.0  33.0  16.0  F  N  N  F  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.8%       23.5%       42.1%
 25kt / 24h       59.5%       57.2%       58.3%
 30kt / 24h       49.5%       55.0%       52.2%
 35kt / 24h       49.5%       55.0%       52.2%
 40kt / 24h       42.4%       51.4%       46.9%
 45kt / 36h       25.4%       27.1%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        7.4%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 EP022022 220615 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    102.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  35.8  33.0  31.1  29.3  28.0  24.1  22.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%