Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220616 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  32.2  29.0  26.6  26.7  25.5  23.7  17.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  11.0  15.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  67.4  46.1  43.0  44.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  84.0 113.0  98.0  51.0  13.0   9.0 -10.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.9%        9.9%       16.4%
 25kt / 24h       38.8%       37.7%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       25.1%       31.4%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       23.7%       31.4%       27.6%
 40kt / 24h       19.4%       30.1%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       11.3%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP022022 220616 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  32.2  29.0  26.6  26.7  25.5  23.7  17.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%