Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220616 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  26.1  27.3  26.2  23.7  22.9  18.4  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  15.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  77.9  59.8  43.0  41.5  41.5  38.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 129.0  72.0  51.0  34.0  10.0  33.0 -13.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0 -10.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%        5.5%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       16.2%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       10.7%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       10.7%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       10.4%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        2.8%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP022022 220616 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  26.1  27.3  26.2  23.7  22.9  18.4  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0 -10.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%