Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220616 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  25.5  28.2  24.9  24.1  21.3  19.0  10.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  16.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  80.1  63.5  49.3  41.5  44.6  38.6  35.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  66.0  52.0  41.0  40.0  22.0 -10.0 -13.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%        5.2%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       10.4%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%        6.4%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        6.4%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%        6.3%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        2.1%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP022022 220616 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  25.5  28.2  24.9  24.1  21.3  19.0  10.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%