Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220617 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  25.8  22.7  20.3  19.2  15.6  12.6  12.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.7  58.0  46.1  41.5  43.0  37.2  33.0  31.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  44.0  52.0  41.0  51.0  29.0  10.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  77.0  73.0  72.0  65.0  62.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.0%        3.4%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        6.0%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        3.3%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        3.3%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        3.3%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        2.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 EP022022 220617 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.