Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220617 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  20.7  20.6  17.3   9.5  10.1  14.4  19.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.6  35.0  33.6  36.5  35.0  32.2  29.4  24.2  U  U VU  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  46.0  45.0  57.0  37.0   8.0 -26.0 -26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  67.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0 -11.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.5%        2.1%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        3.4%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 EP022022 220617 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.