Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.1  13.8  14.3  13.2  16.5  22.0  24.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.1  54.6  56.1  57.7  56.1  53.0  50.0  44.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  46.0  44.0  33.0  11.0 -19.0 -20.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   7.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.24

 EP022022 220618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.