Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  14.6  17.6  21.2  22.6  23.0  25.4  26.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  68.6  70.0  70.0  70.0  64.4  56.7  53.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  25.0  -6.0 -15.0 -36.0 -24.0  30.0   8.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  47.0  47.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.70

 EP022022 220619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.