Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022022 220619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  18.4  17.8  21.6  23.7  23.2  28.0  28.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.2  72.2  70.8  69.4  65.4  59.3  54.8  53.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -30.0 -46.0 -42.0 -27.0  26.0 -13.0 -10.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  45.0  44.0  37.0  35.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.54

 EP022022 220619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.