Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022022 220620 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 112.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.70 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 21.0 23.9 22.1 23.6 28.9 27.7 27.7 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 74.4 73.0 71.7 67.9 59.8 52.8 52.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -46.0 -36.0 1.0 0.0 36.0 5.0 17.0 17.0 VU VU U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 54.0 51.0 47.0 46.0 40.0 39.0 39.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.36 EP022022 220620 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 112.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.