Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220616 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.2  19.0  25.9  36.3  30.6  30.1  33.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  10.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 103.0  79.0  83.0  72.0  90.0 111.0 156.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  87.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.4%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       30.1%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%       14.4%        9.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       14.4%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       14.4%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       26.9%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%       11.4%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        6.7%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%       14.4%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 EP032022 220616 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.2  19.0  25.9  36.3  30.6  30.1  33.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  87.0  85.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%