Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220617 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.2  27.2  33.1  29.8  31.2  30.3  37.6  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  97.0 119.0 105.0  98.0 153.0 116.0 165.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  88.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       14.2%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       12.7%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        6.5%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        8.8%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 EP032022 220617 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.2  27.2  33.1  29.8  31.2  30.3  37.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  88.0  90.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%