Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220617 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.0  32.8  35.8  30.5  33.1  31.8  35.1  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 118.0 113.0  69.0 111.0 136.0 155.0 144.0  F  F  F  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  84.0  88.0  88.0  91.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        7.4%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        6.9%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        5.2%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 EP032022 220617 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.0  32.8  35.8  30.5  33.1  31.8  35.1  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  84.0  88.0  88.0  91.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%