Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220617 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  34.1  31.1  29.7  33.2  30.6  31.2  28.5  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   8.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  66.0  53.0  98.0 145.0 141.0 117.0  85.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  87.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  90.0  89.0  91.0  F VF  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        8.4%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.6%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        7.9%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 EP032022 220617 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  34.1  31.1  29.7  33.2  30.6  31.2  28.5  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  87.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  90.0  89.0  91.0  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%