Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220617 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  32.8  30.1  29.2  32.3  34.0  32.8  33.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  10.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0 106.0 166.0 141.0 136.0 141.0 122.0 167.0  N  F VF VF VF VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  87.0  87.0  85.0  90.0  89.0  92.0  89.0 VF VF VF  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        8.4%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        7.4%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.5%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        4.7%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 EP032022 220617 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  32.8  30.1  29.2  32.3  34.0  32.8  33.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  87.0  87.0  85.0  90.0  89.0  92.0  89.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%