Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  27.4  30.2  36.0  33.1  36.9  34.5  33.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   7.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 148.0 106.0 129.0 107.0 163.0 112.0 104.0  F VF  F  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  87.0  91.0  91.0  89.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.0%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 EP032022 220618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  27.4  30.2  36.0  33.1  36.9  34.5  33.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  87.0  91.0  91.0  89.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%