Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220618 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  26.7  33.5  36.6  30.0  34.9  31.9  28.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   6.0  12.0  15.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0  96.0 145.0 137.0 130.0 124.0 107.0  85.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  90.0  90.0  89.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        2.9%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 EP032022 220618 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  26.7  33.5  36.6  30.0  34.9  31.9  28.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  90.0  90.0  89.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%