Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  32.9  30.4  28.7  31.4  31.6  26.7  24.9  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   8.0  14.0  21.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 109.0 115.0  99.0  73.0  60.0  95.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        4.4%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 EP032022 220618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  32.9  30.4  28.7  31.4  31.6  26.7  24.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%